A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
